“Made in Italy” exports to gain €4.5 bn in six years, thanks to the new emerging countries’ middle classes
Exports of Made in Italy food, furnishings, apparel, and high-end accessories will rise 43% in the next six years in 30 major new markets as demand from global middle-class top spenders grows, a new study shows.
In 2021, this group of countries will absorb 23% of Italian exports for these categories (from 20% in 2015), reaching €15 billion (+€4.5 billion in 6 years). Despite the geopolitical risk, the low commodity prices (which suppress the GDP of some emerging countries, especially Russia) and the barriers -- price-related and not -- that threaten to revive a phase of protectionism.
These are the forecasts of “Exporting the Dolce Vita,” (referring to the famous Fellini’s film, Ed.’s note) the study carried out by Confindustria’s Research Centre and by Prometeia, together with the contribution of nine Confindustria associations covering the industrial sectors involved. Presented yesterday morning in Milan, it analyzes the growth potential of sales of BBF goods (from the Italian “bello e ben fatto,” or “beautiful and well made”) in 30 of the most promising new markets, from 2016 to 2021.
The United Arab Emirates will contribute the most to growth (going from €2 to €3 billion), followed by China (which will increase purchases by €800 million, reaching €2.5 billion) and by Russia, now in second place (€2.6 billion) but losing importance. They are followed by Poland (€1.1 billion), Turkey (€1 billion), Saudi Arabia (€907 million) and Mexico (€550 million).
“In 2021 the 30 new markets will import from Italy as much as France and Germany together import today,” said Luca Paolazzi, the Director of Confindustria’s Research Centre. “Globally, in 2021 there will be an additional 212 million ’new rich’ compared to 2015, individuals with a gross per capita income of $35,000. Half will reside in the major cities of China and India. But the affluent class is expanding even in countries very close to Italy, such as Poland.”
In 2021, the export of food products will reach €2.8 billion (+€598 million compared to 2015). Wines and spirits, in particular, are growing to €488 million (+€107 million). Furnishings will increase to €3.3 billion (from €2.1 billion) and apparel will increase to €3.5 billion (from €2.6 billion in 2015), with half of the incremental demand from Russia and China.
Footwear will reach €1.7 billion, half of which in Russia, which, despite difficulties, remains the main export market, and in China.
Eyewear will get to €1 billion, thanks to purchases by China, United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Brazil. Lastly, gold and jewelry will go up to €2.7 billion, thanks to the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China. But, with the slowdown under way in the emerging countries, will they change their spending habits?
“A number of demographic, urbanization and emancipation factors,” explains Alessandra Lanza, a partner in Prometeia, “will not affect negatively the spending choices and the propensity to consume. The policies of the countries, however, can change, leading, for example, to a reduction in public investments. Then, there is technology. The speed of delivery encourages inter-regional flows in e-commerce. This will change the operational processes implemented by the companies that will have to store more in those markets, encouraging direct investments near the markets that they wish to service.”
Source: ITALY EUROPE 24
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